The Real Estate Bust of 2010

Karl FitzgeraldUncategorisedLeave a Comment

Over 115 people attended this packed event. Phil covered the long term issues like few others can. For more details on Phil’s exciting work, check his new website. Copies of the DVD + Powerpoint + Presentation are $20. Order here (credit card preferred).

For those interested in the type of comprehensive analysis Phil delivered, watch out for Fred Harrison from the UK, the world’s pre-emininent expert on the 18 year cycle. We aree very excited to be touring him in 2008. Fred has many books discussing this issue available from our Prosper bookshop


Friday 27th April, 7.15 for 7.30pm sharp

Phil Anderson is a presenter of the highest note.

  • Hear about the Warren Buffett of the 1920’s
  • Learn about the inter-related nature of economic cycles
  • Analyse unique data

Dont miss this important evening in the comforts of our Hardware Lane abode.

RSVP essential

Level 1, 27 Hardware Lane, CBD
Entry by gold coin donation

Drinks and nibbles will be provided

Innovative Methods Of Financing Public Transportation

Karl FitzgeraldFeatures1 Comment

by Dave Wetzel

The income from fares is usually insufficient to pay for both the capital costs and operating expenses of a modern mass transit system.

Public transportation managers strive to provide safe, efficient, affordable, reliable, comfortable, clean, and convenient journeys for passengers. The service provided not only enables millions of people to travel but also has wider economic, social, and environmental impacts on urban life.

When planning for new public transportation investments, wider economic benefits are usually cited as an important reason for governments to provide subsidies towards the costs of construction and maintenance.

Apart from people who use public transportation systems, international studies over many years have shown that there is an additional beneficiary who plays no direct part in contributing to transportation financing, but who gains a disproportionate share of the economic benefits arising from building and operating rail and bus lines.

Don Riley, a London property developer, has written a book Taken for a Ride in which he explores the impacts of the construction of the Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) Underground train line in London.

Don Riley visited the construction site in the mid-1990s and has since commented how these men digging the tunnel were sweating hard, risking their lives, not knowing where their next job was coming from, while at the same time he, himself, was making money while he slept as his adjacent property holdings considerably appreciated in value when the JLE became a reality.

This understanding of the land market inspired Don Riley to calculate the total land value increase that arose within a radius of only 1,000 yards of each of the new JLE stations. His startling conclusion is that these land values have increased by 13 billion British pounds (US$22.8 billion), while the construction costs of the JLE were 3.5 billion British pounds (US$6.1 billion). Don Riley suggests that some of this wealth should have been collected by the government in order to fund the project. An independent study carried out for Transport for London estimated that between 1992 and 2002, near two of the 11 new stations, Southwark and Canary Wharf, the JLE caused land values to rise by 2.8 billion British pounds (US$4.9 billion). This means that the UK government could have built the JLE at no cost to the public treasury if they had just chosen to collect less than one-third of the increased land values arising from the new transit line. Instead, with the exception of two modest private sector contributions, the funding for the JLE came from the government’s budget, drawing from income taxes and other traditional revenue sources.

It is no fault of the public transportation industry that governments choose to ignore private windfall property value gains generated by public investment. However, the findings of Don Riley and others mean that no longer should transportation planners go hat in hand to governments for subsidies to fund new projects or maintain and renew existing lines. As long as large numbers of people are riding the trains, then we now know that in addition to revenue from fares, the railway can generate its own finances from the increased land values.

If governments continue to only tax wages, trade, or goods and services to create new transportation opportunities, then they are choosing to give an unearned bonus to the owners of land and buildings.

If a government refuses permission to build new transportation improvements due to inadequate budget revenues, and the public officials do not want to increase existing taxes, then they are not only denying citizens travel opportunities. In addition, ironically, they are denying property owners the opportunity to share in rising values that will arise if the improvements are at least partly financed from the increase in property values.

In other words, financing new and improved transportation infrastructure from rising property values creates a virtuous economic cycle that provides a win-win situation for all stakeholders, including the private property owners who directly provide some of the funding. Assuming the project requires even 50 percent of the property value increases, property owners retain 50 percent of a large gain if the improvements are completed — rather than 100 percent of no increase if the transportation investments are not made at all.

How can governments collect this hidden subsidy that goes to certain very fortunate property owners, some of whom were already extremely wealthy. Denmark already collects a land tax for local expenditure. All the land is valued each year and a percentage tax applied. In Hong Kong a modest income tax is supplemented with substantial revenues from government land leases. In parts of North America, South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand property taxes contribute directly to public funds.

Of course transportation infrastructure is not the only factor raising property values. Population and employment growth, greater commercial productivity, higher incomes, good quality public and private services, and many other factors all contribute to the value of individual sites. Similarly, nature provides mineral deposits (oil, gold, diamonds, and even coal), fertile fields, beautiful views of rivers, lakes, seas, and the countryside — all of which can translate into higher land values.

A Location Benefit Levy can be applied to all sites which would be valued annually for their rental income based on their optimum permitted use, ignoring all building improvements. A tax rate could then be applied to this land value in order to produce an income for public funds. As the land value rises, so does the sum collected. This means, for example, that an empty site in a town or city center with permission to develop for an office building would pay the tax at the same rate as an identical site next door which already has a similar size office building developed. Unlike taxes on buildings, there would be no reduction in the estimated land value or amount of taxes owed for a deteriorated structure or for keeping the site empty. Similarly, there would be no increased tax liability for constructing or improving a building on the site.

Reduced Urban Sprawl

If a Location Benefit Levy were introduced, several benefits would begin to flow.

Not only is such a tax inexpensive to administer and collect, it is also quite difficult to avoid (land can not be moved to another jurisdiction or concealed like other forms of property, valuables, and money). More importantly, there would be an immediate incentive for landowners to improve their land and build upon it. Environmentally damaged brownfield sites would be cleaned up and used for homes, jobs, or public open spaces. Housing would become more affordable through increased supply, and whole neighborhoods could be revitalized. Urban regeneration would be in the best interests of landowners, especially in areas that have lost major industries.

With more sites available in towns and cities, small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) would have lower lease costs and thus be able to expand their business or start new ones. More jobs would be created, claims for unemployment payments would be reduced, and the economy would grow faster.

With housing more affordable in towns and cities the urge for workers to move long distances from their work in order to purchase a less expensive house would be avoided. Urban sprawl into the countryside, encroaching into green belts, agricultural land, and open space would be diminished. Public transportation agencies would avoid the additional costs of building facilities and expanding services for suburban and exurban commuters.

Families would benefit as workers could spend more quality time at home rather than commuting for several hours daily.

With less urban sprawl not only would green spaces be saved but society would avoid the substantial expense of building new infrastructure and extending service delivery.

Compact, high-density towns and cities operate much more efficiently, and open space is released for better planning, perhaps following Sir Ebenezer Howard’s Garden City model.

‘The Smart Tax’

Another reason why some people call the Location Benefit Levy “The Smart Tax” is because although land values generally increase due to proximity to transportation improvements, values can also decline on sites adjacent to the railway lines because of excessive noise, pollution, unsightly views, environmental and health hazards, harsh smells, safety and security threats, and other physical and social intrusions. With the Location Benefit Levy there would be no need for disadvantaged landowners to apply for compensation, as with the next annual revaluation of all sites, their land values and corresponding tax contributions will be reduced.

Fred Harrison, the Director of the Land Research Trust has demonstrated in his new book Wheels of Fortune how the careful recording of land value changes over time can provide a very useful urban planning tool. When new mass transit is being planned the existing historical records of land value changes can be used to determine which route will provide the largest land value increases. There may be perfectly valid reasons for choosing an alternative route, but at least this decision can be taken with a clear indication of the total value that the community investment will generate through each potential transit alignment.

Dave Wetzel is Vice Chair of Transport for London in the UK, Chair of the Professional Land Reform Group, Chair of the Labor Land Campaign, and a member of the Advisory Board of Global Urban Development. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport.

The Modern Juggernaut

HistoryLeave a Comment

Taken from The Beacon, Nov 1st, 1893 (Melbourne)

Juggernaut was a god of India, a monsterous idol, whose huge nostrils loved the scent of the blood of human sacrifice.

When his great chariot was rolled through the streets, men and women in adoration flung themselves beneath its wheels and were gloriously crushed to death.

While the victims thought to gain thereby eternal joys and a paradise of indolent repose, their shrieks and groans sounded sweet in the great god’s ears, or, rather, in those of the fat priests who tended him, and who leered horribly at one another, knowing that such mad self-immolation assured them in their bloody offices. For it was the priests that fostered the worship of the beastial image, since to them fell the stripping of the slain and the toil-won offerings of superstitious devotees.

Such was the god of India, and like to him is the great idol of this land. Not Juggernaut is he called, though his attributes and worship are much the same. Our god demands the human sacrifice, and, at the bidding of fat priests, superstitious devotees fling themselves beneath his chariot wheels. He, too, heeds not the groaning of his victims , and wherever he rides for thin pomp desolation is attendant on him; the road that he passed is marked by many a skeleton, and watered by many a tear. Victoria’s Juggernaut has his slaughter houses where are huddled the men, the women, and the children that are his prey. He heeds not their moans, their prayers for air, for light, for bread. What are their sufferings to him, when the damps of starvation and death are the accustomed breath of life in the nostrils; as well ask the hangman to shed tears of pity on the scaffold or the murderer to weep for his prey.

Such is our Juggernaut; and yet louder and louder his fat priests cry, “Great and good is our god!” “Great and good is our god!” cry the butcher like priests as they seize in his name the pauper’s last penny, and, as recompense, fling him beneath the chariot wheels.

Should a heretic arise to denounce their awful cruelties, they are lashed into fury, crying, “What doubt you the settled religion of this country? Down, down beneath the triumphal car of Juggernaut and render thanks for his loving kindness

Whence sprang the worship of our woe-glutted idol; whence these awful sacrifices? From ignorance, from greed, from trust in lying promises. A paradise was assured all devotees, and the priests, capable double-faced, and insatiable, bound them fast in the great god’s chains. And a strange spaciousness was theirs, for while ostensibly they fed their victims, they secretly bled them to death. “Worship our god”, they cried, “and toil will cease”. And so the toilers listened, bowed the knee, and were given awhile fair dreams to amuse them.

But all is now changed, for the terrible voice of Necessity is calling to the toilers – “Awake!” At the call they are rousing from their dreams and feel the pressure of the vampire lips that suck and suck at their life-blood. The mask is being torn from the face of the Juggernaut, like the veil of the prophet Khorassan; it hides features horrible enough to strike aghast even the fanatic worshipper could he behold them aright and see their naked hideousness. The victims for the human sacrifice are crying to the fat priests, “Why pleaseth our god that we starve to death; hath he only power to destroy and none to save?” The priests in their turn are beginning to tremble lest they lose their dear bought perquisites; lest the truth be revealed and they and their teachings be accursed for ever. And so they shriek for fresh sacrifices to appease the wrath of their god.

Shall they be granted? Shall the voice from our Juggernaut’s slaughter houses – the sweating dens, the huddled cribs of the poor, the ruined homesteads, the bankruptcy court-be unheaded; or rather shall not our Juggernaut – the Corporation – be for ever dethroned, despite the wailings of the fattened priests?

Capitalism’s Change Agents

Karl FitzgeraldTrue Cost EconomicsLeave a Comment

January, 2007

With climate change finally front and centre on the political agenda, we are at a unique point in time to assess our ability to change.

When capitalism began there was an abundance of nature and a shortage of goods. It made sense to prioritise the means of production. However today, with our rollercoaster summer taking us from 18 to 36 degree days, our growth fetish could soon become a famine.

Corporations and consumers must be brought back into balance with nature.

The Insurance Industry is on the front line to nature’s warnings. How long will it be until remote bush property in North-Eastern Victoria is un-insurable? Time is marching for million dollar coastal property and rising sea levels.

The big question is – can we rely on our present system to change behaviour quickly enough?

The European Emissions Trading System is facing a steep learning curve, allocating too many carbon credits in its’ initial 2005 – 2007 time phase, giving companies approval to pollute with a free conscience. Subsequently, prices per carbon credit plummeted 60%.

The dominance of smokestack CEO’s in Howard’s Climate Change panel is compounded by the short-term parameters that quarterly dividends impose on CEO thinking. Quarterly dividends must be reformed in favour of annual or even bi-annual returns.

The ‘New Westminster’ system we promote as democracy sees hundred of thousands of dollars in political donations soon returned as hundreds of millions in profits from a new loophole or government contract. One vote, one value has been replaced by one dollar for one decision.

This system of Lobbyocracy will eat itself and our planet in self-interest if we are not careful. It is imperative for change’s sake that public finance provides all the campaign money political parties require.

The market’s ability to change is limited by these economic and political factors. Big Business has become so dominant, so top heavy, that vested interests are hindering society’s ability to change.

Perhaps the biggest threat to change is the trend towards tax systems favouring speculation. Speculating in the gifts of nature has become second nature.

A recent ANU report by Leith & Simon found that the top 1% of the economy earn just 20% from salaried work.

Negative gearing and low capital gains taxes have given the thumbs up to skyrocketing property prices, encouraging the destruction of urban fringe forests and simultaneously curtailing the potential of small business and wage earners alike.

Inefficient tax regimes see endless urban sprawl and little social infrastructure. However, there is always a place for a gambling outlet. Typically the struggling middle to poorer classes move out to these McMansion-ville estates on the urban fringe, sapping their energy in drive-time traffic jams. When it comes to shopping they are too exhausted to remember their hessian bags, let alone walk or cycle to the shops. The rapid expansion of city borders gives government little capacity to fund the necessary public transport, further adding to the carbon wave.

For those of us lucky enough to own a home, the extra hours we work to pay off our hyper-inflated mortgages rob us of the full potential to live sustainably. Even with two wage earners per household, it’s hard to find time to behave responsibly. We need to reclaim our time to give us the headroom to re-train our behaviour.

This can best be done by reducing the lump sum on our mortgages.

True custodians of the future would transform our taxation system to a True Cost Economics system, with public revenue raised through a Resource Rentals system. Resources soon become precious when we are penalised for wastage. As a gift to all living beings, resource-based profits are now shared amongst the community, not just the shareholders.

Alaska’s Permanent Trust Fund delivers a citizen’s dividend paid from their oil wealth. It is the only US state to have reduced the wealth gap over the last decade.

The endless housing affordability crisis shows the crucial role of cheap access to land. The UN’s Global Land Tools Network is promoting a land value capture mechanism to recycle community created land rents (naturally increasing property prices) back into public hands. After all, society underwrites long-term property growth rates in the taxes they pay for new roads and schools. Spin offs from this reform include urban infill, self-financing public transport and a considerable drop in tax compliance.

Our current system subsidises wealthy property investors to hoard land. A land value capture mechanism such as a Site Rental ensures this crucial resource is used more efficiently. The yearly fee reduces the ability to sit on land, with the increased supply pushing mortgage prices down.

Calculations from the Land Values Research Group show that earth based revenues from land, water, oil, coal and the electromagnetic spectrum are sufficient to replace all taxes. With a yearly Resource Rental fee paid, hoarding of water permits for example, is discouraged.

This turns speculative money away from gambling on the planet and towards productive means.

Reinforcing this, a system of Environmental Trusts should be empowered to look after environmental treasures. An environmental bond for miners will ensure they leave the house in order. Free from political influence, these Trusts will be legally responsible to future generations.

Environmental Trusts can oversee our citizen’s personal carbon allowance. The embedded carbon in each purchase made will be deducted via a debits card from our yearly allowance. Corporations will continue the trading of carbon credits. However carbon credits must be bought within a marketplace, not allocated as Europe has done. With the carbon ceiling continually lowering, pollution becomes more costly and cleaner products favoured. Polluters also face a higher Resource Rental (ie for polluting water), further reinforcing the move to cleaner production.

The longer we rely on international agreements hamstrung by undemocratic structures and self-interest, the harsher will be our judgment in the annals of history. Each country needs to take the future of its’ people into its own hands. The reforms to Lobbyocracy and quarterly dividends will enhance long term decision making, whilst the improvements in taxation will provide an environmental reminder every time we pull out our wallets. We will also have time to think and behave responsibly with the speculative pressure taken out of the property market. Then we can all turn down the heat as quickly as possible.

Karl Fitzgerald

Letters

Karl FitzgeraldFeaturesLeave a Comment

Hobart has made it into the big league! – Leo Foley
Jan 23, The Mercury

House prices have pushed us into the top 20 of unaffordable cities in the world.
After seven years of boom, the legacy of this government, elected by ordinary
working people, will be a city owned by the elites.

It need not be so. House building is a competitive industry, and with proper
foresight on trade skills, costs will always tend to rise only in line with wages
and the general price index.

The real ‘boom’ has been in land price. Speculation in real estate has pushed
land beyond the price of Tasmanian wages. Young Tasmanian families are excluded
from the market. That demands government action, not with more subsidies and
grants that benefit only existing owners, but real tax reform that will overcome
the existing market failure.

Associate Professor (Economics) Graeme Wells points the way in his letter,
23 January. He says “There would be significant efficiency gains in moving from
the present transactions tax to a flat-rate land tax.” Not only would it be
efficient, it would also be equitable.

The Labor government, under pressure on so many fronts, still has the opportunity
to create conditions of prosperity for all Tasmanians, and to make home ownership
a reality for following generations. Will it rise to the occasion?

Leo Foley
Lenah Valley, Tasmania
Justice the Aim


History’s Lessons – Terry Dwyer
The Australian

 

Dear Sir,

Mr Michael Janda’s advocacy of land value taxation as a means of lowering
the tax burden on both workers and entrepreneurs is well advised. As Adam
Smith recognized, there are only three factors of production – land, labour
and capital – and only one of them does not flee or stop working or breeding
when taxed.

In the modern context, land values cannot be shifted offshore to escape
taxation (in contrast to nebulous and artificial concepts such as “income”
or “capital gains”). Shrewd contemporary observers such as Samuel Brittan
of the London Financial Times have recognized that taxing land values to
reduce taxes on capital and labour can allow developed Western countries
compete better against emerging low-wage economic giants such as India and
China.

Unfortunately, land value taxation in Australia has been degraded in recent
years by its political abuse as a selective envy tax. It was not always so.
Few people today realize that it was Sir Joseph Carruthers in 1906 in New
South Wales as a Liberal Premier who brought in simple unimproved land value
rating to pay for municipal services. Without that reform, Sydney would
have lagged and “Marvellous Melbourne” would probably still be the financial
capital of Australia.

Before 2006 passes into history, it would be wise for the people of Sydney
to remember what was done for them by Sir Joseph Carruthers one hundred
years ago and ask themselves if there is any valid reason why they cannot
now pay for things such as new dams the same way they paid for Warragamba
Dam.

The decay of great cities is not always inevitable but it is an inevitable
result of a pervasive lack of knowledge of the past and a lack of foresight
drawn from the lessons of the past.

Terence Dwyer B.A. (Hons) B.Ec. (Hons) (Syd.) A.M., Ph.D. (Harvard), Dip Law
(Syd.)

Visiting Fellow
Crawford School of Economics and Government
Australian National University
CANBERRA ACT 0200
AUSTRALIA


Unbiased Policy Advice Needed – Keith Thomas
as published in Crikey, Jan 11th

 

Re. “The crisis in our housing markets” (yesterday, item 2). David
Imber is right to point to the self-seeking publicity from the real
estate industry. I’d like to add that the emotional term “home” and
the more neutral one “house” disguise the fact that the largest
component in domestic property prices is often the land.

Travelling through country Victoria over Christmas I saw many houses
in agent’s windows half or even a third the price of otherwise
equivalent properties in my city, Canberra.

The reason that the city properties cost more is simply demand — that
is, their value derives from the proximity of services and employment,
not the hardware that goes into their construction. House prices are
rising, too; not because of better hardware, but because of demand.

What we need to do is to slice off this unearned value increase and
return it to the people who created it (the Australians who provide
the demand and the services), not allow it to slip unremarked into the
pockets of “property developers” and “investors”.

Despite the logic of this solution, do you think it will happen?

No way — almost every legislator in this country has property
investments and is counting on pocketing some unearned value for
themselves — the parasites. The Tenants Union is probably one of
the few places to look for unbiased policy advice in this area.


Taxing Times – Dr Gavin Putland
Canberra Times – October 24, 2006

 

The ACT Opposition would have us believe that land tax reduces the
supply of rental housing. How so? The tax is on the land, not the
housing.

The land can’t run away to escape the tax. The owners can’t escape
the tax except by selling the land, and the resulting pressure to
sell makes land more affordable for prospective buyers.

If the buyers are owner-occupants, they divert the demand for
rental accommodation. If the buyers are investors, the tax gives
them an incentive to seek tenants to bring in rent and cover the
tax liability. To this end, the buyers must build on the land if
it has not already been built on.

Thus the effect of land tax is to increase the supply of rental
housing and therefore make rents more affordable. And the higher
the tax, the greater the effect.

Dr Gavin R. Putland (Research Officer, Prosper Australia), West
End, Qld